Officials from both sides have started joint measurements of water levels in the Ganges, or Padma as the river is known in Bangladesh, as part of preparations to renew the agreement signed in 1996 and due to expire in December this year, according to Indian media reports, citing officials.
The monitoring began last week and is scheduled to continue at 10-day intervals until May 31, a period that is critical for assessing dry-season flows, the reports say.
The talks come at a sensitive moment as the two countries navigate political and geographical knots bedevilling their ties, even as they assess hydrological data arising from one of the region’s most contested transboundary water-sharing arrangements that affect the livelihoods of millions of people.
Under the 1996 agreement, India and Bangladesh would each get 35,000 cubic feet (991 cubic metres) per second of water.
One concern in New Delhi is that Dhaka may ask for more water than originally specified, particularly since Bangladesh has “a more powerful negotiation platform” after it joined the UN water convention last June, according to Mahla.
This was why Bangladesh’s suggestion to create a new institutional framework in September to manage water-sharing agreements with India for 14 transboundary rivers was “viewed with suspicion” in India, which is not a signatory to the convention.
Apart from addressing severe water vulnerability and the impact of climate change, Dhaka’s involvement in the UN treaty is also seen as an attempt to seek a stronger legal framework for cooperation on shared rivers with upstream nations like India and China.
Bangladesh is the first South Asian nation to join the UN treaty, which provides a global framework for managing shared water resources.
Sk Tawfique M Haque, director of the South Asian Institute of Policy and Governance in Dhaka’s North South University, said Bangladesh hoped to see a timely renewal of the 1996 agreement between Delhi and Dhaka to ensure predictable dry-season flows.
“India has so far shown caution and may prefer to delay substantive discussions,” he said, pointing out that one major obstacle was the absence of an elected government in Bangladesh for now. The country is holding its general election on February 12.
Delhi has shown increasing “strategic rigidity” on transboundary water governance and persistent disagreements over the resource’s allocation, Haque said.
Like Bangladesh, India’s stance on transboundary water governance stems from growing water scarcity due to climate change, rising population and heightened national security. Such concerns have also led to a row between India and Pakistan.
The Indus Waters Treaty on the use of water in the Indus River, signed in 1960 between the two countries, has been complicated by Delhi’s accusation that Islamabad is supporting terrorism, raising concerns that the agreement could become a political bargaining tool.
Over the past year, ties between India and Bangladesh have been strained due to the political fallout from the ousting of Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and her continued presence in India.
Accusations of political interference by Dhaka, as well as India’s protests over clashes in Bangladesh that it claimed were targeting Hindus, have led to envoys from both sides summoned over these issues.
India will be monitoring the election in Bangladesh as its outcome could guide its approach towards Dhaka, according to analysts.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been growing in prominence as it positions itself as the alternative to the former ruling and now-banned Awami League, led by the deposed Hasina.
Nonetheless, a recent visit of India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to Bangladesh for the funeral of former prime minister and BNP chairwoman Begum Khaleda Zia could help rebuild trust between the two countries, he added.
Courtesy: South China Morning Post
