India eyes strategic gains in Yunus’ China river plan

Bangladesh’s interim government Chief Adviser, Muhammad Yunus, has embarked on a delicate diplomatic effort by urging China to share a 50-year masterplan for managing Bangladesh’s river and water systems. This request follows Beijing’s decision to construct a colossal hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet, a project that has raised significant concerns in both India and Bangladesh.

Yunus made this appeal during a meeting with China’s Water Resources Minister, Li Guoying, in Beijing on Friday.

According to Bangladesh’s media reports, Yunus commended China’s water and flood management systems, acknowledging the country’s remarkable success in tackling complex water-related challenges.

“We face the same issues that you do. Therefore, we would greatly appreciate it if you shared your expertise,” Yunus told Li. “As a delta nation, Bangladesh is intersected by numerous rivers. While water is essential for life, it can also be a formidable adversary. With a significantly increased population, we must be mindful of the damage it can inflict on our ecosystem.”

Yunus also brought up India’s concerns regarding the proposed mega-dam, highlighting the growing competition for land along riversides due to population growth and development demands. He pointed out that similar challenges exist in upstream regions of India, with siltation further exacerbating the problem by creating land in riverbeds, ultimately leading to their degradation.

Describing China as a leader in water management, Yunus expressed Bangladesh’s eagerness to learn from its expertise and requested China to share President Xi Jinping’s vision on water management. In response, Minister Li acknowledged that both China and Bangladesh face comparable water management challenges and assured Dhaka of technical support and expertise.

“Water management is a critical issue for Bangladesh, just as it is for China,” Li stated, recognising that 85% of Bangladesh’s population resides in flood-prone areas, complicating efforts to manage water resources effectively. He further emphasised that President Xi has introduced a comprehensive masterplan in China to address these challenges.

“We require your assistance in designing a similar plan for us,” Yunus responded.

Yunus’s decision to highlight India’s apprehensions about the dam during his discussions with Li signals Dhaka’s intent to engage with both regional powers on this vital issue. For India, this development holds significant geopolitical and environmental implications, affecting not only water security but also the evolving dynamics of India-Bangladesh-China relations.

In December last year, China approved the construction of the dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River. Valued at $137 billion, this project is set to become the world’s largest hydroelectric facility upon completion, with an annual power output of nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh)—three times that of the current largest hydroelectric project, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River.

Although the initiative was incorporated into China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), Beijing’s formal approval on 25 December last year has intensified concerns among experts in India and Bangladesh, both of which depend on the Brahmaputra River. China asserts that the dam will aid its goal of achieving net carbon neutrality by 2060. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China’s hydropower developments on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River are intended to accelerate clean energy development and mitigate climate change and extreme hydrological disasters.

The Yarlung Zangbo River originates from the Angsi Glacier in western Tibet, southeast of Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar. It flows through the South Tibet Valley and the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon before entering Arunachal Pradesh in India, where it is known as the Siang. The river widens as it moves through Arunachal Pradesh, and once it reaches Assam, it is joined by the Dibang and Lohit tributaries, becoming the Brahmaputra. The river then enters Bangladesh, where it is referred to as the Jamuna after merging with the Teesta. Further downstream, it converges with the Ganges and is renamed the Padma. The Padma eventually meets the Meghna River near Chandpur in Bangladesh, flowing into the Bay of Bengal via the Meghna estuary and its distributaries.

If China proceeds with the construction of the dam, experts fear that it could cause severe hydrological and ecological damage downstream in India and Bangladesh. The project also threatens India’s ability to develop its own hydropower initiatives along the river, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. India has consistently voiced concerns about the potential impact on the Brahmaputra River and has urged Beijing to adopt transparent measures while consulting affected nations.

“As a lower riparian state, we hold established rights to utilise the river’s waters,” Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated earlier this year. “We have consistently communicated our concerns regarding China’s mega projects through both expert-level discussions and diplomatic channels.”

Jaiswal reiterated the importance of transparency and consultation with downstream nations, stressing that China should ensure its projects do not harm the interests of lower riparian states. “We will continue to monitor the situation and take necessary steps to safeguard our interests,” he added.

Notably, during his visit to China, which concluded on Saturday, Yunus also invited Chinese investors to participate in Bangladesh’s Teesta River water management project. By seeking China’s involvement in the Teesta project, Dhaka aims to strengthen its water cooperation with Beijing, further deepening its engagement with the regional power on water resource management.

 


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