“It’s very important that we see China as our good friend,” Yunus told reporters during his visit. “Our relationship has been very strong over the years. Our business is very strong, and we benefit from our collaboration with China.”
The trip, however, has fuelled speculation that Bangladesh is recalibrating its foreign policy, tilting away from its historic ally India and looking northward to Beijing. Yunus’ presence in China – instead of delivering a speech to the Bangladeshi people on independence day – is being seen by some as a calculated move to strengthen ties with the economic powerhouse, even as relations with India remain strained.
Bangladesh’s ties with India have frayed since the collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government last August, following mass student-led protests. Delhi had long been Hasina’s ally, backing her administration and its preference for Indian partnerships on key projects, such as the US$1 billion Teesta River water-sharing agreement.But Yunus’ interim government has taken a different tone, with the Teesta project now potentially in play for Chinese collaboration.
The Hindu, a prominent Indian daily, reported that Yunus had sought to visit Delhi before heading to China but received no positive response. For India, Yunus’ visit to Beijing on such a symbolic day would not have gone unnoticed. There were “deep optics underpinning the visit”, said Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based political analyst and author.
“He [Yunus] could have used this opportunity to reassure people that their lives, livelihood and property are going to become better and law enforcement agencies will be used for coming down heavily on those who take the law in their own hands,” Debsarkar said.
Dhaka’s growing ties with Beijing have been watched warily by Delhi. Analysts say Bangladesh’s plans to modernise Mongla Port and develop a China Industrial Economic Zone are particularly concerning to Indian officials.
Any Chinese-led infrastructure projects near India’s northeastern border close to Bangladesh’s Teesta River “could pose a major security challenge for the region”, Debsarkar said.
During the visit, the two sides signed eight cooperation agreements, including deals to expand Mongla Port and a memorandum on the new China Industrial Economic Zone. But while China remains Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, Dhaka’s exports to Beijing are paltry, with a trade deficit reaching US$16.45 billion last year, the country’s Daily Star newspaper reported.
Bangladesh is “looking at new ways to export more goods to China”, according to Sreeradha Datta, an international-relations professor at Jindal Global University in India. Agricultural products and other commodities could help reduce the trade imbalance, she said.
Datta said that Yunus might also have sought Beijing’s help with the Rohingya crisis – an issue that has strained Dhaka’s resources and international relations.
While the economic benefits of closer ties with China are readily apparent, analysts caution that Dhaka risks overreliance. The interim government must strike a delicate balance, ensuring it doesn’t alienate India, whose historical and geographical proximity makes it an indispensable partner.
Datta said she believed the interim administration would avoid making any major decisions, such as fully handing over the Teesta River project to China, until an elected government takes office. Elections are expected by the end of the year, but political tensions remain high, with uncertainty over whether the Awami League – Hasina’s party – will take part.
The Teesta River, opening out to the strategically significant Bay of Bengal, has long been an important water source for irrigation and hydropower generation in both India and Bangladesh, playing a vital role in the economy and ecology of the region.
“There is a possibility that Bangladesh may start collaborating with China on projects such as Mongla Port and Teesta River development with which it was engaging with India, but I don’t think the interim government will take a call on such a sensitive issue,” Datta said. “They will probably wait for an elected government to take any decision on these projects.”
For now, Yunus’ trip to China has sent a clear message: Dhaka is keeping its options open. But in a region fraught with historical grievances and strategic rivalries, the cost of tilting too far in one direction could be steep.
Biman Mukharji, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia
